UCP’s new budget will see 7,600 more public sector workers

Yesterday, the UCP government released their last provincial budget before Albertans head to the polls this spring.

Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll pull out some data from the budget for several articles. But for my first “breaking” story, I wanted to do something that most mainstream outlets probably won’t be.

This news story will focus on how this budget will affect public sector jobs.

Before I do that, I just wanted to give a high-level snapshot of this year’s budget.

	2022-2023 (budget)	2023-2024 (budget)	Change
Revenue	$62.6 billion	$70.7 billion	$8.1 billion
Expenses	$60.3 billion	$66.8 billion	$6.5 billion
Contingency	$1.8 billion	$1.5 billion	-$0.3 billion
Deficit/surplus	$0.5 billion	$2.4 billion	—

Numbers may not add up because of rounding

Resource revenue alone increases by over $2 billion in this year’s budget over last year’s initial budget. That’s 58.1% of the increase in revenue. As well, federal transfers (~$0.5 billion), personal income tax (~$0.7 billion), and corporate income tax (~$2 billion) are up.

Like I said, I’ll do a breakdown on that in a future article.

Let’s get to jobs.

First let’s start with the Government of Alberta jobs. In Schedule 22 of the 2022–2023 budget, the government said that there were planning on having 25,981 workers in the various government ministries and departments.

In this year’s budget, the number jumps up to 27,572. That means that this government plans to hire 1,591 workers over the next year.

The largest increase will come in Public Safety and Emergency Services, which will hire near 700 workers, an increase of 18.22%. Only 4 departments/ministries will see a decrease in workers, the largest of which will be in Transportation and Economic Corridors, who will be cutting 33 workers from their payroll, or 4.26%.

Here’s how workers in the various departments will fare over the next fiscal year:

	2022–23 budget	2023–24 budget	Change
Advanced Education	281	291	10
Affordability and Utilities	75	86	11
Agriculture and Irrigation	622	625	3
Children’s Services	3,015	3026	11
Culture	498	499	1
Education	507	566	59
Energy	448	451	3
Environment and Protected Areas	1,221	1219	-2
Executive Council	150	162	12
Forestry, Parks and Tourism	1,562	1666	104
Health	802	850	48
Indigenous Relations	175	176	1
Infrastructure	809	816	7
Jobs, Economy and Northern Development	882	858	-24
Justice	2,834	3197	363
Mental Health and Addiction	71	87	16
Municipal Affairs	442	441	-1
Public Safety and Emergency Services	3,832	4530	698
Seniors, Community and Social Services	3,009	3050	41
Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction	959	1077	118
Skilled Trades and Professions	221	226	5
Technology and Innovation	1,197	1201	4
Trade, Immigration and Multiculturalism	208	242	34
Transportation and Economic Corridors	775	742	-33
Treasury Board and Finance	1386	1488	102

Anyone else find it slightly ironic that the ministry of jobs is cutting their workforce? No? Just me?

Now, that we have had 4 budgets from the UCP government, I thought I’d take a look at the change in the number of workers projected in the NDP’s last budget and the number of workers projected in the UCP’s budget. Oh, actually, I guess this is their fifth one, actually.

Anyhow, in their last budget, the NDP had planned to employ 27,808 workers in the government’s ministries and departments. After 5 budgets, the UCP plan to employ 27,572 workers in their departments and ministries. That means over a 5-year period, the UCP government will have laid off 236 workers.

“Jobs. Economy. Pipelines.”

I can’t compare the individual departments and ministries between the two governments, as the UCP has renamed several ministries and introduced new departments into their budget, without any indication of how they compare to past budgets, other than last year’s.

Now let’s look at workers in K–12, postsecondary, and Alberta Health Services, the so-called SUCH (schools, universities, colleges, and health) workers.

First, here’s how things look compared to last year.

	2022-23	2023–24	Change	% change
Post-secondary	32,140	32,403	263	0.82%
K–12, Certificated	37,038	37,688	650	1.75%
K–12, Non-certificated	26,026	27,401	1,375	5.28%
AHS	84,360	87,930	3,570	4.23%

According to the UCP’s new budget, they plan on hiring new workers in postsecondary, healthcare, and K–12 education. But there’s some context we should be aware of.

At the end of 2022, Alberta’s population was 4,601,314. The year before, it was 4,466,124, which means our population has increased by 135,190, or 3.03%.

Even though the government plans to hire over 260 post-secondary workers, it won’t be enough to cover population growth.

As far as, K–12 schools go, they plan on hiring 650 certificated workers, which I assume means teachers and administrators. There are 63 public, separate, and Francophone school districts/authorities in this province. That’s barely 10 new teachers per school district, let alone per school.

For example, the Lethbridge school division has 24 schools, so that would mean that not even half of Lethbridge schools would be able to increase their teaching staff levels by even just 1 teacher.

On the other hand, the government plans to hire 1,375 non-certificated workers, which I assume are support workers of various kinds. That increase of 5.28% would cover population growth, and then some.

Same goes for healthcare. The UCP plan to hire 3,570 AHS workers. This would potentially include frontline care providers (like nurses and doctors), technical workers, support workers, and administration. And at an increase of 4.23%, that should cover population growth.

Now let’s compare them to the NDP’s last budget.

	2018-19	2023–24	Change	% change
Post-secondary	33,588	32,403	-1,185	-3.53%
K–12, Certificated	36,883	37,688	805	2.18%
K–12, Non-certificated	26,463	27,401	938	3.54%
AHS	80,570	87,930	7,360	9.13%

In the fourth quarter of 2018, Alberta’s population sat at 4,317,665. Four years later, in the fourth quarter of 2022, our population sat at 4,601,314. That’s an increase of 283,649, or 6.57%.

On average, Alberta has seen an annual increase in population of 1.64% between fourth quarters. If we see a similar increase this year, then our population will be 4,676,891 by the end of the year, an increase of 8.32% since the fourth quarter of 2018.

In other words, only AHS will have increased workers above population growth, but just barely. Even though K-12 workers will have increased, that increase won’t be enough to keep up with population demand.

And Alberta’s colleges, universities, and trade schools will still be over 1,000 workers short where they were before the UCP were elected, even with the increase of 263 workers this year over last year.

Finally, here is the change in employees for various agencies and arms length organizations.

	2022–23	2023–24	Change
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation	561	570	9
Alberta Energy Regulator	1,048	1,048	0
Alberta Enterprise Corporation	11	12	1
Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation	15	15	0
Alberta Innovates Corporation	589	596	7
Alberta Insurance Council	24	24	0
Alberta Investment Management Corporation	621	697	76
Alberta Pensions Services Corporation	333	346	13
Alberta Securities Commission	232	253	21
Alberta Utilities Commission	132	132	0
Canadian Energy Centre	10	10	0
Health Quality Council of Alberta	36	45	9
Invest Alberta Corporation	50	50	0
Legislative Assembly	748	764	16
Natural Resources Conservation Board	34	34	0
Safety Codes Council	60	60	0
Travel Alberta Corporation	80	80	0
Victims of Crime and Public Safety Fund	54	54	0

Not a single one of these entities will see a loss of workers between now and the next provincial election. Overall, these groups will see a combined increase of 152 new workers. The largest increase will go to the Alberta Investment Management Corporation, who will employ 76 more people over the next year.

Here are the same entities but with the change in workers since 2018–2019:

	2018–2019	2023–2024	Change
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation	630	570	-60
Alberta Energy Regulator	1,240	1,048	-192
Alberta Enterprise Corporation	6	12	6
Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation	—	15	15
Alberta Innovates Corporation	712	596	-116
Alberta Insurance Council	24	24	0
Alberta Investment Management Corporation	427	697	270
Alberta Pensions Services Corporation	297	346	49
Alberta Securities Commission	205	253	48
Alberta Utilities Commission	143	132	-11
Canadian Energy Centre	—	10	10
Health Quality Council of Alberta	35	45	10
Invest Alberta Corporation	—	50	50
Legislative Assembly	746	764	18
Natural Resources Conservation Board	47	34	-13
Safety Codes Council	60	60	0
Travel Alberta Corporation	80	80	0
Victims of Crime and Public Safety Fund	54	54	0

Three of the agencies and organizations—Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation, the energy war room, and Invest Alberta Corporation—didn’t exist under the NDP.

Four of the agencies—Alberta Insurance Council, Safety Codes Council, Travel Alberta Corporation, and Victims of Crime and Public Safety Fund—saw no increases under the UCP.

Five of them reduced how many workers they employed, the largest of which was the Alberta Energy Regulator, who laid off nearly 200 workers, compared to the NDP’s final year in government.

All the remaining agencies and organizations saw increases in staffing levels. The largest increase in the number of workers was with the Alberta Investment Management Corporation, which hired an additional 270 workers.

Here’s a summary of the three areas of public sector employees: ministries and departments, SUCH, and agencies.

First, year-over-year changes.

	2022–23	2023–24	Change	% change
Ministries	25,981	27,572	1,591	6.12%
SUCH	179,564	185,422	5,858	3.26%
Agencies	4,638	4,790	152	3.28%
	210,183	217,784	7,601	3.62%

And here are the changes for the last 5 years.

	2018–19	2023–24	Change	% change
Ministries	27,808	27,572	-236	-0.85%
SUCH	177,504	185,422	7,918	4.46%
Agencies	4,706	4,790	84	1.78%
	210,018	217,784	7,766	3.70%

What we see here is that there’s only a difference of 165 between these two tables. So, while it might seem impressive that the UCP government plans to hire over 7,600 public sector workers over the next year, they hired only 165 workers over the previous 4 years.

It’s almost like there’s an election coming soon.