Earlier this month, Canadian marketing firm Mainstreet Research published their most recent voting intention poll, and for the first time since September, the federal Conservatives are leading all other parties in the poll.
With less than a month since losing their leader, Erin O’Toole, after 62% of his party’s MPs ousted him in a secret ballot, the party is riding high in the polls.
The survey results had the official opposition party leading voting intention with 38.7% among decided and leaning voters, when asked, “If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?”
Here’s how all the major parties fared in the poll:
| CPC | 38.7% |
| LPC | 30.6% |
| NDP | 14.6% |
| BQ | 6.3% |
| PPC | 6.2% |
| GPC | 1.9% |
| Other | 1.7% |
That’s a full 10 points over how the Conservatives placed in Mainstreet’s previous survey, the results of which were published last Janaury.
In that same poll last month, the Liberals also managed support among 29% of the participants, which means they also saw increased support in this month’s survey. Granted their increase was nowhere as substantial as that of the Conservatives.
This is the highest the Conservatives have placed in any poll since the election. In fact, it’s also the best they’ve done since the 2019 federal election.
Their next highest placement was 38%, which they hit at the end of last August.
Remember, this is only one poll. Mainstreet’s next poll might have the Conservatives back in the 20s. Or it could be the start of a new trend. Only time will tell.
Here is how the results break down by geographic region:
| BC | AB | SK/MB | ON | QC | Atl | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPC | 24.3 | 10.9 | 21.8 | 32.4 | 30.1 | 40.2 |
| CPC | 33.1 | 59.7 | 42.9 | 35.4 | 25.7 | 32.1 |
| NDP | 22.5 | 10.7 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| GPC | 3.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 3.1 |
| BQ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.2 | 0.0 |
| PPC | 8.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 5.2 |
And here is how the geographic breakdown looks like when we compare it to the last Mainstreet poll, published in Janaury.
Much of the gain in support for the Conservatives is in the Prairie provinces, which saw a combined increase of 38.3 points. That came mostly at the expense of the PPC, which saw a drop of 24.1 points in the Prairies. But the Conservatives also saw increases in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.
That being said, the Liberals also saw gains in BC, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, so it’s not like the Conservatives are the only ones looking better. The NDP and PPC both saw losses in every geographic region, and the Greens saw losses in 4 of the 6 regions.
Oh, Mainstreet’s survey also asked questions about whether participants agreed with the invoking of the Emergencies Act to remove protestors in Ottawa and at several border crossing across the country.
Participants were pretty split, with 38.2% strongly supporting but also 38.9% strongly opposing. When you factor in those who somewhat support and somewhat oppose, total support comes in at 51.5% and total oppose is 44.3%, with 4.3% unsure.
Male and non-binary respondents were more likely to oppose, while female participants were more likely to support.
| Male | Female | Non-binary | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 32.9% | 43.4% | 36.1% |
| Somewhat support | 10.9% | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Somewhat oppose | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| Strongly oppose | 48.2% | 29.7% | 41.7% |
Young people were also more likely than older people to oppose the invoking of the Emergencies Act.
| 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 22.1% | 33.0% | 46.8% | 55.7% |
| Somewhat support | 14.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 15.0% |
| Somewhat oppose | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| Strongly oppose | 50.7% | 44.9% | 33.3% | 22.4% |
Mainstreet’s poll used a sample of 1,323 adults and was conducted over landlines and mobile phones. The margin of error for the poll is ±2.7% with 95% confidence level.
