New poll shows O’Toole’s Conservatives beating Trudeau’s Liberals

Earlier this week, Forum Research released the results of a new poll, and it shows the the Conservative Party 3 points ahead of the Liberal Party.

The telephone survey found that if an election were held the day of the poll (15 August 2021), 31% of the 1,203 respondents would vote for the CPC and 28% would vote for the LPC. The NDP would once again be in third place, with just 19%.

This is the first poll Forum has conducted on federal voting intentions since the 2019 election, and it is the first poll since before the pandemic that found the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals.

Angus Reid had the Conservatives at 34% and the Liberals at 26% in a poll published on 26 February 2020, and 5 days prior to that, Nanos had a 3-point spread with Conservatives 36%—although there was an Angus Reid poll from last August that found the two parties tied at 35%.

Forum’s new findings are also the first time since that Angus Reid poll from last February that Liberals have polled below 30%.

Given the uniqueness of the results, Forum’s poll may end up being an outlier. At the same time, it’s the first poll conducted since Trudeau announced the 44th federal election, and it’s possible that it could be portraying an emerging trend as we head into the campaign.

The only thing that will tell us one way or another is more polling, so keep an eye on 338 Canada, where you can find every poll taken since 2018. Wikipedia also tracks election polling.

When broken down by geographical region, O’Toole’s Conservatives lead in every province west of Québec. Trudeau and his Liberals were leading in Québec and Atlantic Canada.

Interestingly enough, Québec was the only province where the Green Party performed better than the NDP (13% vs. 9%). That’s a long ways away from the near sweep the NDP saw in Belle Province in 2011.

	CPC	LPC	NDP	GPC	BQ
Canada	31	28	19	8	7
BC	33	25	27	9	0
AB	46	17	24	5	0
MB/SK	40	20	24	5	0
ON	34	31	18	5	0
QC	16	29	9	13	27
ATL	28	33	25	9	0

Gender-based results show that the Conservatives lead among men, Liberals among women, and NDP among non-binary respondents.

	Men	Women	Non-binary
Conservative	39	24	24
Liberal	24	32	12
NDP	16	21	29
Green	6	10	9
BQ	7	6	6
PPC	7	3	15

Liberals were in 4th place among non-binary voters.

	<25	25–34	35–44	45–54	55–64	65+
Conservative	27	29	29	32	36	31
Liberal	12	15	24	29	35	39
NDP	28	34	20	18	11	11
Green	20	8	10	7	6	4
BQ	2	6	6	7	6	10
PPC	5	8	7	6	5	2

The NDP lead among voters under 35, Conservatives lead among those 45 through 54, and the Liberals lead among old people. Liberals were in fourth place under respondents under the age of 25.

Forum claims their margin of error is ±3% 19 times out of 20.