AB family doctors per person has increased

The College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta recently released their fourth quarter Physician Resources in Alberta update for 2023.

According to the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta, there were 11,738 registered physicians at the end of December 2023. That’s a net increase of 130 over the previous quarter and a net increase of 331 over the same period in 2021.

Of the 18 communities listed in their report, 12 saw a net increase of registered physicians over the last quarter. Edmonton had the largest net increase, at 99, and Calgary had the second highest, at 19, followed closely by Red Deer, at 18. Medicine Hat and Wetaskiwin were tied for the largest decrease, at 4; although “other locations” collectively saw a decrease of 50 physician registrations.

That quarterly net increase of 130 was a result of 225 new registrations and 95 cancellations:

Of the new registrations, 80 were for physicians who returned to Alberta and 106 who were trained outside of Alberta. When we compare that with the 60 who left Alberta, we get a net migration of 126 physicians into the province. Remember, that is for registrations. Theoretically, a doctor could leave Alberta but maintain their registration in the province.

The numbers reflect the physicians who maintained an active licence within the applicable quarter; it cannot be interpreted as those who are actively practising. . . . These counts do not necessarily reflect physicians’ functional area of practice, or even if they have an active clinical practice.

“Methodology”. Physician Resources in Alberta Quarterly Update: Oct 01, 2020 to Dec 30, 2021, pp. 1,3.

Let’s look at the registration numbers over the last 5 years or so (I couldn’t find any CPSA data beyond 2016):

Quarter	Number	Change
Oct–Dec 2022	11,738	1.1%
Jul–Sep 2022	11,608	3.1%
Apr–Jun 2022	11,260	1.2%
Jan–Mar 2022	11,132	-2.4%
Oct–Dec 2022	11,407	0.5%
Jul–Sep 2022	11,346	2.5%
Apr–Jun 2022	11,069	0.9%
Jan–Mar 2022	10,965	-1.7%
Oct–Dec 2021	11,153	-0.1%
Jul–Sep 2021	11,167	2.2%
Apr–Jun 2021	10,927	0.6%
Jan–Mar 2021	10,866	-2.3%
Oct–Dec 2020	11,120	-0.3%
Jul–Sep 2020	11,152	2.3%
Apr–Jun 2020	10,905	0.9%
Jan–Mar 2020	10,812	-1.2%
Oct–Dec 2019	10,948	0.4%
Jul–Sep 2019	10,906	2.9%
Apr–Jun 2019	10,599	0.8%
Jan–Mar 2019	10,519	-1.5%
Oct–Dec 2018	10,674	0.4%
Jul–Sep 2018	10,630	2.7%
Apr–Jun 2018	10,351	0.7%
Jan–Mar 2018	10,274	-1.0%
Oct–Dec 2017	10,376	0.0%
Jul–Sep 2017	10,379	2.9%
Apr–Jun 2017	10,088	1.0%
Jan–Mar 2017	9,991	-0.6%
Oct–Dec 2016	10,048	0.0%
Jul–Sep 2016	10,043	3.4%
Apr–Jun 2016	9,713	1.2%
Jan–Mar 2016	9,596	-1.2%

Let’s look at all the fourth quarters together. First, we’ll compare fourth quarter registrations to third quarter registrations.

This was the second time since 2019 that Alberta saw an increase in fourth quarter physician registrations. Not only that, but at 1.12%, it was the largest percentage-based increase, too, since at least 2016, beating out the previous high set in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Keep in mind, however, that this comes after two straight fourth quarters with decreases in registrations, which means that, over the last 4 fourth quarters, we’ve seen only a 1.24% overall increase. That’s an average of 0.31% per year.

And here are the 7 fourth quarters with how much they’ve changed from the previous fourth quarter.

Physician registrations in the fourth quarter last year weren’t the worst we’ve seen since 2016. In fact, they were the third best. Not quite as high as under the NDP, but getting pretty close.

Since the first quarter of 2019, the last quarter before the UCP took power, Alberta physician registrations grew by 1,219, or 11.59%.

By comparison, between the same period 4 years prior (first quarter of 2015 until fourth quarter of 2018), Alberta saw a net increase of 1,513 physician registration under the NDP. That’s an increase of 16.52%, roughly 5 percentage points more than what we’ve seen under the UCP.

Now how do they break down by where they came from and where they went to?

Well, 22 of the 225 new registrations were from people trained in the province, compared to 12 in 2022. 106 were new registrations from outside Alberta and 15 were “restored”. In 2022, those numbers were 89 and 3, respectively, in the fourth quarter.

There were 80 registrations for physicians who returned to Alberta, compared to 31 in 2022. However, 60 of the 130 cancelled registrations were from physicians who left the province, as I pointed out earlier, leaving a net migration gain of 126 physicians when added to the 106 registrations from physicians trained from outside Alberta.

Of the remaining 26 cancellations, 13 retired and 2 died, compared to 19 and 3 in 2022. As well, there were 12 removed registrations. These were for physicians who were suspended or were licensed for a limited period and have since been removed from the register. This number was 8 in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Finally, 128 physicians voluntarily erased their registrations. During the fourth quarter of 2022, 12 did so.

Oh, and I just want to point out that out of those 11,738 registered physicians, only 4,045 are registered in family medicine, which works out to be about 1 family doctor for every 1,176 residents.

At the end of December 2022, Alberta had 1 family doctor for every 1,180 residents, which was down from 2021, when it was 1 family doctor per 1,206 residents. And it was 1,219 family doctors per resident in the fourth quarter of 2020.