AB had 2nd worst payroll employee growth under UCP

Statistics Canada recently released third quarter data on payroll employment for each of the provinces. The seasonally adjusted data was as of November 2022.

This data is different from the labour force data I reported on for November, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.

I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in Alberta.

ON	6,848,626
QC	4,011,231
BC	2,497,540
AB	2,064,361
MB	631,167
SK	497,840
NS	441,771
NB	348,780
NL	218,702
PEI	75,404

Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.

In November 2022, there were 2,064,361 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 2,060,720. That’s a 3,641 increase, the largest increase in the country.

	Oct 2022	Nov 2022	Change	Change
AB	2,060,720	2,064,361	3,641	0.18%
ON	6,846,931	6,848,626	1,695	0.02%
QC	4,009,744	4,011,231	1,487	0.04%
BC	2,496,298	2,497,540	1,242	0.05%
NS	440,779	441,771	992	0.23%
NB	348,035	348,780	745	0.21%
PEI	75,376	75,404	28	0.04%
NL	219,183	218,702	-481	-0.22%
SK	498,770	497,840	-930	-0.19%
MB	632,315	631,167	-1,148	-0.18%

When we look at the increase as a percentage of November’s job numbers, we see that Alberta actually had the third largest increase, surpassed by only Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Alberta had the fourth largest increase when we compare to November 2021, a year earlier and a more than a year and a half after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Nov 2021	Nov 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,543,347	6,848,626	305,279	4.67%
QC	3,869,503	4,011,231	141,728	3.66%
BC	2,369,963	2,497,540	127,577	5.38%
AB	1,954,994	2,064,361	109,367	5.59%
MB	610,922	631,167	20,245	3.31%
NS	425,927	441,771	15,844	3.72%
NB	334,119	348,780	14,661	4.39%
SK	483,462	497,840	14,378	2.97%
NL	211,356	218,702	7,346	3.48%
PEI	71,921	75,404	3,483	4.84%

As I said at the outset, this shouldn’t be that surprising, given that we have the fourth largest population in general. Alberta is in first place, however. in terms of percentage change over the last year.

Here is what things look like going back to November 2020, two years prior and about 8 months into the pandemic.

	Nov 2020	Nov 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,150,757	6,848,626	697,869	11.35%
QC	3,595,207	4,011,231	416,024	11.57%
BC	2,217,789	2,497,540	279,751	12.61%
AB	1,842,002	2,064,361	222,359	12.07%
MB	576,646	631,167	54,521	9.45%
SK	460,946	497,840	36,894	8.00%
NS	408,756	441,771	33,015	8.08%
NB	320,797	348,780	27,983	8.72%
NL	205,574	218,702	13,128	6.39%
PEI	67,254	75,404	8,150	12.12%

Alberta, once again, had the fourth largest increase in payroll employment, but dropped to second highest when we look at percentage-based increase.

However, things start to look less rosy the further we go back.

For example, check out what the numbers look like when compared to November 2019, 5 months after the UCP government introduced what they dubbed the “Job Creation Tax Cut”.

	Nov 2019	Nov 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,601,538	6,848,626	207,228	3.12%
QC	3,800,130	4,011,231	196,195	5.14%
BC	2,338,118	2,497,540	142,989	6.07%
AB	2,028,566	2,064,361	37,502	1.85%
NB	324,479	348,780	25,336	7.83%
MB	614,669	631,167	17,081	2.78%
SK	482,154	497,840	16,953	3.53%
NS	421,403	441,771	15,887	3.73%
PEI	68,667	75,404	5,490	7.85%
NL	215,583	218,702	2,998	1.39%

Alberta’s growth in payroll employees since November 2019 was the fourth best of all the provinces in Canada, in total numbers. However, that growth was drastically lower than the 3 larger provinces. for example, British Columbia, which was only one spot above Alberta, saw an increase in payroll employment that was nearly 4 times as large as Alberta’s, despite having a population that is only 14% larger.

On a percentage basis, Alberta actually saw the second worst growth of all provinces, coming in at less than two percent.

Ontario saw an increase in over 200,000 payroll employees during the same period. Québec and BC were the only other provinces to pass the 100,000 mark. And PEI grew their number of payroll employees by nearly 8%.

Finally, let’s compare last year’s numbers to November 2018, the last November during the NDP administration.

	Nov 2018	Nov 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,545,722	6,848,626	302,904	4.63%
QC	3,723,842	4,011,231	287,389	7.72%
BC	2,310,255	2,497,540	187,285	8.11%
AB	2,016,658	2,064,361	47,703	2.37%
NB	321,528	348,780	27,252	8.48%
NS	414,901	441,771	26,870	6.48%
SK	480,196	497,840	17,644	3.67%
MB	614,784	631,167	16,383	2.66%
PEI	67,825	75,404	7,579	11.17%
NL	215,346	218,702	3,356	1.56%

Once again, Alberta saw the fourth largest increase in absolute numbers, but, once again, it trails behind the three other large provinces. Ontario passed the 300,000 mark, Québec was just under 300,000, and BC was at almost 200,000, more than 4 times the increase that Alberta saw, despite having only 14% more people living there.

By percentage, Alberta was still in second-to-last place, at just 2.37%.

Keep in mind that Alberta’s population increased by 6.16% during the same period, which means the growth in payroll jobs we did see wasn’t even enough to give jobs to the people who were moving to the province, let alone those who were already here and were still unemployed.

PEI saw the largest increase in percentage growth, at over 11%

On that note, PEI’s corporate tax rate is 16%. Despite having a corporate income tax rate that is twice as high as Alberta’s, PEI was able to growth their payroll employees by 4.5 times more than Alberta could.

Maybe how low a tax on corporate profits is actually has no bearing on job growth.