AB’s payroll employee growth trailing 7 provinces

Statistics Canada recently released data on payroll employment for each of the provinces. The seasonally adjusted data was as of September 2023.

This data is different from the labour force data I reported on for September, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.

In particular, it includes full-time employees, part-time employees, as well as permanent, casual, temporary, and seasonal employees. It also includes working owners, directors, partners, and other officers of incorporated businesses, as well as employees who work at home or on the road but report to the location.

However, what it doesn’t include are owners or partners of unincorporated businesses and professional practices, the self-employed, subcontractors, external consultants, unpaid family workers, persons working outside Canada, and military personnel, as well as employees on unpaid leave, such as those on extended sick leave who are receiving insurance benefits.

I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in each province for September 2023.

ON	7,011,051
QC	4,059,894
BC	2,552,143
AB	2,127,452
MB	643,394
SK	507,078
NS	449,462
NB	351,163
NL	222,616
PEI	76,630

Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.

In September 2023, there were 2,127,452 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 2,121,979. That’s a 5,473 increase, the second largest increase in the country.

	Aug 2023	Sep 2023	Change	% change
QC	4,042,121	4,059,894	17,773	0.44%
AB	2,121,979	2,127,452	5,473	0.26%
ON	7,007,618	7,011,051	3,433	0.05%
BC	2,550,321	2,552,143	1,822	0.07%
SK	506,418	507,078	660	0.13%
MB	643,530	643,394	-136	-0.02%
NS	449,809	449,462	-347	-0.08%
NL	223,210	222,616	-594	-0.27%
NB	352,691	351,163	-1,528	-0.43%
PEI	78,364	76,630	-1,734	-2.21%

Alberta was 1 of 5 provinces to see an increase in the number of payroll employees between August and September. PEI, which lost over 1,700 payroll employees, saw the largest decrease.

When we look at the increase as a percentage of the August job numbers, we see that Alberta still had the second largest increase.

Alberta had the second largest increase when we compare to September 2022, a year earlier and almost 2.5 years after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Sep 2022	Sep 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,872,491	7,011,051	138,560	2.02%
AB	2,053,582	2,127,452	73,870	3.60%
BC	2,492,125	2,552,143	60,018	2.41%
QC	4,001,451	4,059,894	58,443	1.46%
MB	630,561	643,394	12,833	2.04%
SK	495,720	507,078	11,358	2.29%
NS	438,661	449,462	10,801	2.46%
NL	217,456	222,616	5,160	2.37%
NB	347,219	351,163	3,944	1.14%
PEI	75,023	76,630	1,607	2.14%

Alberta jumps to first place, however, in terms of percentage change over that year.

Here is what things look like going back to September 2021, two years prior and a year and a half into the pandemic.

	Sep 2021	Sep 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,479,974	7,011,051	531,077	8.20%
QC	3,843,311	4,059,894	216,583	5.64%
BC	2,340,533	2,552,143	211,610	9.04%
AB	1,935,763	2,127,452	191,689	9.90%
MB	608,214	643,394	35,180	5.78%
SK	475,783	507,078	31,295	6.58%
NS	419,146	449,462	30,316	7.23%
NB	332,955	351,163	18,208	5.47%
NL	211,304	222,616	11,312	5.35%
PEI	69,920	76,630	6,710	9.60%

Alberta had the fourth largest increase in payroll employment. If we look at the percentage-based increase, however, Alberta saw the largest increase.

Not much changes when compare the numbers to September 2020, 6 months after the government introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Sep 2020	Sep 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,086,925	7,011,051	924,126	15.18%
QC	3,648,193	4,059,894	411,701	11.29%
BC	2,179,716	2,552,143	372,427	17.09%
AB	1,816,170	2,127,452	311,282	17.14%
MB	583,998	643,394	59,396	10.17%
SK	452,661	507,078	54,417	12.02%
NS	399,632	449,462	49,830	12.47%
NB	319,229	351,163	31,934	10.00%
NL	200,796	222,616	21,820	10.87%
PEI	64,903	76,630	11,727	18.07%

Alberta’s growth in payroll employees since September 2020 was still the fourth best of all the provinces in Canada, in total numbers. On a percentage basis, Alberta actually was in second place amongst all provinces, coming in at 14.14%.

Ontario saw an increase in nearly 1 million payroll employees during the same period.

Next, let’s compare this year’s first quarter numbers to September 2019, 5 months after the UCP won their first provincial election and 2 months after they implemented the so-called Job Creation Tax Cut.

	Sep 2019	Sep 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,630,487	7,011,051	380,564	5.74%
QC	3,835,908	4,059,894	223,986	5.84%
BC	2,357,079	2,552,143	195,064	8.28%
AB	2,024,621	2,127,452	102,831	5.08%
NS	423,235	449,462	26,227	6.20%
SK	482,406	507,078	24,672	5.11%
NB	327,146	351,163	24,017	7.34%
MB	621,088	643,394	22,306	3.59%
PEI	70,597	76,630	6,033	8.55%
NL	217,436	222,616	5,180	2.38%

Once again, Alberta saw the fourth largest increase in absolute numbers, but this time their percentage increase dropped dramatically to 8th place, at just 5.08%.

Finally, let’s look at the 5-year trend, going back to September 2018, the last September under the NDP government.

	Sep 2018	Sep 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,525,145	7,011,051	485,906	7.45%
QC	3,726,014	4,059,894	333,880	8.96%
BC	2,309,776	2,552,143	242,367	10.49%
AB	2,008,739	2,127,452	118,713	5.91%
NS	415,866	449,462	33,596	8.08%
NB	319,387	351,163	31,776	9.95%
SK	477,731	507,078	29,347	6.14%
MB	616,271	643,394	27,123	4.40%
PEI	67,323	76,630	9,307	13.82%
NL	216,572	222,616	6,044	2.79%

Alberta still saw the fourth highest increase in total numbers of payroll employees, but they were stuck in third-from-the-bottom again for percentage growth, at only 5.91%.

Keep in mind that Alberta’s population increased by 9.4% during the same period—or rather between August 2018 and August 2023—which means the growth in payroll jobs we did see wasn’t even enough to give jobs to the people who were moving to the province, let alone those who were already here and were still unemployed.

PEI saw the largest increase in percentage growth, at 13.82%.

On that note, PEI’s corporate tax rate is 16%. Despite having a corporate income tax rate that is twice as high as Alberta’s, PEI was able to grow their payroll employees by almost 3 times more than Alberta could.

Maybe how low a tax on corporate profits is actually has no bearing on job growth.

Finally, here’s a look at the monthly growth in payroll employees for Alberta since September 2018.

While it might seem impressive on the surface that Alberta saw an increase of 311,282 payroll employees over the last 2 years, it looks like most of that was recovery from the pandemic.

In fact, as I pointed out earlier, over the last 4 years, from 6 months before the pandemic was starting, Alberta saw an increase of just 102,831 payroll employees. That means that of the 311,282 additional payroll employees we’ve seen since September 2020, 208,451 are likely exclusively recovery positions. That works out to about 66.97%.

Not only that, but between September 2019 and February 2020, Alberta had lost 15,234 payroll employees, so we were already on a decline before the pandemic hit.

And it wasn’t even until last April—over 3 years—that we finally passed the number of payroll employees we had in April 2019.

Oh, and one more thing. In September 2018, Alberta accounted for 12.06% of all payroll employees in Canada. Five years later, our share has decreased to 11.82%.