Late last month, Statistics Canada released data on retail sales in Canada, and I thought I’d see how Alberta did compared to the rest of the country.
The data spans from January 2017 to September 2023.
First, here’s a snapshot of each province in September 2023.
| ON | $24.768 |
| QC | $14.972 |
| BC | $9.061 |
| AB | $8.560 |
| MB | $2.260 |
| SK | $2.148 |
| NS | $1.776 |
| NB | $1.443 |
| NL | $0.945 |
| PEI | $0.307 |
Alberta is in 4th place, which I don’t find that surprising, given that we have the fourth largest population of all the provinces.
Ontario tops the list at $24.768 billion in retail sales, and they’re also the most populous province. PEI is at the bottom of the list with a little over $300 million, and they are also the province with the smallest population.
Now let’s compare the provinces’ performance this past September to their performance in September 2017.
| Sep 2017 | Sep 2023 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | $19.173 | $24.768 | $5.59 | 29.18% |
| QC | $10.642 | $14.972 | $4.33 | 40.68% |
| AB | $6.870 | $8.560 | $1.69 | 24.59% |
| BC | $7.408 | $9.061 | $1.65 | 22.31% |
| MB | $1.703 | $2.260 | $0.56 | 32.72% |
| SK | $1.623 | $2.148 | $0.52 | 32.32% |
| NS | $1.369 | $1.776 | $0.41 | 29.71% |
| NB | $1.088 | $1.443 | $0.36 | 32.64% |
| NL | $0.792 | $0.945 | $0.15 | 19.39% |
| PEI | $0.200 | $0.307 | $0.11 | 53.15% |
Here, we see that Alberta is still in 4th place, but they had the third largest increase during this 6-year period, jumping up $1.69 billion. However, if we look at the percentage increase, we see a less rosy picture.
Between September 2017 and September 2023, Alberta’s retail sales increased by 24.59%, which is the third lowest increase among all the provinces. Only Newfoundland and Labrador (19.39%) and British Columbia (22.31%) saw smaller increases.
PEI had the largest percentage increase, rising by over 53% since September 2017, followed by Québec at nearly 41%.
In the chart below, we can track how Alberta’s retail sales growth compared with that of the other provinces every month between September 2017 and September 2023.
Alberta is the solid yellow line.
What we see is that over time, most of the other province start pulling away from Alberta.
For example, in September 2020, PEI’s retail sales had grown by 17.88% while Alberta’s had grown by 7.62%, a difference of a little more than 10 percentage points.
Compare that to September 2023, when the two provinces sat at 53.28% and 24.59%, a spread of nearly 30 percentage points.
So, while Alberta has seen quite a bit of growth, it’s lagging behind much of the country. And considering that we have the fourth highest number of consumers in the country, you’d think those consumers would see the fourth largest increase in retail spending.
But we’re not. We’re seeing the third smallest increase instead.
