I was recently going through data on consumer price index in Canada, and I was curious to see how much CPI has changed for housing in each province.
The data I’m using is as of July 2022.
Here’s is how CPI for shelter looked for each province as of this past July.
| AB | 193.7 |
| SK | 182.1 |
| NL | 180.1 |
| MB | 177.1 |
| NS | 172.1 |
| ON | 168.8 |
| PEI | 168.3 |
| NB | 157.5 |
| QC | 151.4 |
| BC | 143.7 |
As we can see, Alberta had the highest score among all provinces for shelter. In fact, it was a full percentage point by the second highest province, Saskatchewan.
While I was looking at this information, I was curious to see how Alberta was doing with wages, too.
Here’s the average hourly wage for each province as of July 2022.
| AB | $32.22 |
| ON | $31.92 |
| BC | $31.74 |
| QC | $30.71 |
| SK | $29.54 |
| NL | $28.61 |
| MB | $27.70 |
| NB | $27.04 |
| NS | $26.86 |
| PEI | $25.46 |
Oh, look at that. Alberta has the highest average hourly wage, too.
So, that’s pretty good, right? People in Alberta make more money, which means they can afford the higher increases to housing, right?
Well, let’s take a look at how things have changed over time.
For example, let’s look at how housing costs and wages have changed over time.
First, here’s how they have changed since last July.
| CPI change | Wages change | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEI | 11.02% | 3.50% | -7.52% |
| AB | 6.37% | 0.72% | -5.65% |
| NS | 9.20% | 4.07% | -5.13% |
| ON | 7.38% | 4.90% | -2.48% |
| BC | 7.96% | 5.66% | -2.30% |
| SK | 4.90% | 2.78% | -2.11% |
| MB | 7.27% | 5.28% | -1.99% |
| NL | 5.69% | 6.63% | 0.94% |
| NB | 6.71% | 8.59% | 1.89% |
| QC | 5.73% | 8.06% | 2.33% |
Here we see that over the last year, CPI for shelter in Alberta increased by 6.37%, while wages grew 0.72%. We had the second largest housing–wage gap of all the provinces, behind only PEI.
In other words, housing costs grew at nearly 9 times the rate as wages in Alberta over the last year, surpassing 8 other provinces.
It’s worse when we look at just the last 5 years, since July 2017.
| CPI change | Wages change | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AB | 17.97% | 8.70% | -9.26% |
| PEI | 27.69% | 20.44% | -7.26% |
| MB | 22.90% | 16.53% | -6.37% |
| NS | 21.54% | 17.86% | -3.68% |
| SK | 11.79% | 13.05% | 1.26% |
| ON | 20.74% | 22.82% | 2.07% |
| BC | 21.06% | 24.91% | 3.85% |
| NL | 15.37% | 19.76% | 4.38% |
| NB | 17.54% | 25.01% | 7.47% |
| QC | 16.02% | 25.14% | 9.13% |
Alberta’s housing–wage gap has nearly doubled, is the largest in the country, and is now a full two points higher than PEI’s.
Even though the average hourly wage has increased much more over the last 5 years than just the last year for Alberta, we still saw the lowest increase in the country: 8.7%. The next lowest was Saskatchewan, whose average hourly wage increased by 13.05%.
Meanwhile, Alberta had the 6th largest increase in housing CPI.
Things even out a bit more if we go back a decade, to July 2012, but still not great news for Alberta.
| CPI change | Wages change | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MB | 39.01% | 30.78% | -8.23% |
| AB | 27.94% | 22.74% | -5.20% |
| ON | 34.61% | 32.78% | -1.83% |
| SK | 24.05% | 25.38% | 1.34% |
| PEI | 30.06% | 33.58% | 3.52% |
| NS | 27.39% | 31.73% | 4.34% |
| NL | 23.61% | 30.46% | 6.85% |
| BC | 25.94% | 37.70% | 11.76% |
| NB | 25.30% | 37.96% | 12.66% |
| QC | 21.12% | 41.39% | 20.27% |
Alberta’s housing–wage gap is back to being the second worst, and in the 5% range. This time, though, they’re behind Manitoba, not PEI.
However, unlike over the past year when their housing–wage gap was -5.65%, Alberta was 1 of only 3 provinces that saw housing costs increase faster than wages over the past 10 years. Manitoba and Ontario are the other two.
Over the last year, when Alberta’s housing–wage gap was similar to what it’s been over the last decade, we were 1 of 7 provinces with a negative gap.
So, while Alberta’s wages might be higher than those in other provinces, the fact that housing costs keep outpacing wage growth means it’s getting more difficult to afford the same housing on the same salary.
