Statistics Canada recently released interprovincial migration data for the second quarter of 2021.
Alberta had 23,639 people move in from other provinces between April and June, yet saw 29,086 move away to other provinces. In other words, Alberta saw a net loss of 5,447 people.
This marks 5 quarters in a row when Alberta saw more people leave the province than move into it.
| Incoming | Outgoing | Net | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | 16,872 | 20,923 | -4,051 |
| Q3 2020 | 12,592 | 13,454 | -862 |
| Q4 2020 | 8,659 | 10,449 | -1,790 |
| Q1 2021 | 15,241 | 18,973 | -3,732 |
| Q2 2021 | 23,639 | 29,086 | -5,447 |
| Total | 77,003 | 92,885 | -15,882 |
Having a net loss in the second quarter isn’t new. This the 6th year in a row that Alberta saw a net interprovincial migration loss. In fact, of the 24 quarters since the second quarter of 2015, only 5 have seen a net gain in interprovincial migration.
Actually, there were 71 quarters since 1961 where fewer people moved to Alberta than moved from Alberta, so it’s not actually that uncommon, and despite what some people might claim, it may not even be something we can blame on the UCP.
I mean, sure, most of the time over the last 50 years, Alberta has seen net migration gains, but the number of quarters with losses since 1961 means that, on average, 1 quarter out of every year has seen a net migration loss.
Definitely not that rare.
That being said, this was the largest net loss in interprovincial migration in the second quarter since 2016, when it was 6,010.
Actually, during their 4 years in office, the NDP saw only 3 quarters with a net gain in interprovincial immigration. Throughout the NDP’s entire term, Alberta had a net loss of 28,283 in interprovincial immigration.
If we look at just their first 9 quarters, the NDP had a net migration loss of 25,017, while the UCP had about half that during their 9 quarters, with a net loss of 12,979 during their term so far.
So, I think we should be careful about blaming this net migration loss on the UCP.
