UCP and NDP tied in new poll, NDP leading in Calgary & Edmonton

NDP leading among young, female, urban, university-educated voters. UCP leading among older, male, rural, college-educated voters.

Angus Reid published the results today of a new poll that shows Alberta’s UCP and NDP parties are tied in terms of support.

The poll of roughly 600 respondents, which was conducted between 26 August and 1 September 2020, shows only 38% of Alberta voters would choose the UCP if an election were held “tomorrow”.

This is the lowest support the party has seen since being elected last spring, and it’s also the same level of support the NDP has, which puts them at a tie. This is the first time since the election that the NDP seem poised to be reelected in 2023.

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In 2019, UCP had 55% support, and the NDP had only 33%. The Alberta Party is at 9%, which is where they were during the election. The Alberta Independence Party sits at 7% support, and was at 1% last year. All other parties come in at 8%.

These results are on the heels of a recent report that showed Jason Kenney’s personal favourability is at an all-time low of only 42%.

Of those who voted UCP in last year’s election, nearly 1 in 3 now support a different party. Compare that to the NDP, which still has 97% support among their voters. Of those who no longer support the UCP, 13% intend to vote NDP, 20% intend to vote Alberta Party, and 67% intend to vote another party.

The UCP’s biggest support comes from those who are 55 years old and older, where they have 51%. This is the highest level of support for any party in any one age bracket. However, this age bracket was at 67% in 2019. Their biggest drop was among the 35–55 voters, which saw a drop of 20 percentage points.

The NDP, on the other hand, sees their greatest support—47%—among 18 to 34-year-olds, which is up from the 39% in support this age bracket gave them during the election. In fact, support is up for the NDP in all age brackets, the opposite of the UCP.

Men are overwhelmingly more likely to vote UCP (61%) compared to women (49%), but it’s the reverse for the NDP: 43% women and 22% men.

Those with a high school or college/trade school education were most likely to vote UCP (53% and 40% respectively), while university-educated voters were were more likely to vote NDP at 49%.

Intriguingly, all income brackets were more likely to support NDP than UCP, but just barely: 40% and 35% for under $50,000, 40% and 38% for $50,000–100,000, and 38% and 37% for above $100,000.

NDP’s support appears to be among urban voters, beating out the UCP in both Calgary (45% vs. 36%) and Edmonton (63% vs. 26%). The UCP, conversely, see most of their support in Southern Alberta (46% vs. 20%) and Northern Alberta/Edmonton suburbs (38% vs. 34%).

As far as support for the issues, the UCP has majority support from voters on only one issue: their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On every other issue, more people thought they were doing a poor job. Their lowest positive response was to seniors care, which had only 28% support, and health care, jobs, and education were all tied at 61% for worst performance.

Good jobPoor job
Health care36%61%
Deficit, government spending33%58%
Housing affordability30%55%
Poverty, homelessness29%59%
Drug use, addiction30%54%
Oil & gas, pipelines47%48%
Indigenous issues39%45%
Seniors care28%59%

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By Kim Siever

Kim Siever is an independent queer journalist based in Lethbridge, Alberta. He writes daily news articles, focusing on politics and labour.

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