UCP oversee 2nd worst payroll employee growth in Canada

Statistics Canada recently released fourth quarter data on payroll employment for each of the provinces. The seasonally adjusted data was as of December 2022.

This data is different from the labour force data I reported on for December, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.

I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in Alberta.

ON	6,901,379
QC	4,037,200
BC	2,520,044
AB	2,083,521
MB	636,635
SK	501,808
NS	445,645
NB	349,843
NL	219,765
PEI	75,697

Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.

In December 2022, there were 2,083,521 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 2,070,826. That’s a 12,695 increase, the third largest increase in the country.

	Nov 2022	Dec 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,864,480	6,901,379	36,899	0.54%
QC	4,018,345	4,037,200	18,855	0.47%
AB	2,070,826	2,083,521	12,695	0.61%
BC	2,508,569	2,520,044	11,475	0.46%
MB	632,799	636,635	3,836	0.61%
NS	442,627	445,645	3,018	0.68%
SK	499,168	501,808	2,640	0.53%
NB	348,968	349,843	875	0.25%
NL	218,999	219,765	766	0.35%
PEI	75,844	75,697	-147	-0.19%

When we look at the increase as a percentage of November’s job numbers, we see that Alberta actually was tied with Manitoba for the second largest increase, surpassed by only Nova Scotia.

Alberta had the fourth largest increase when we compare to December 2021, a year earlier and a more than a year and a half after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,600,603	6,901,379	300,776	4.56%
QC	3,881,405	4,037,200	155,795	4.01%
BC	2,380,554	2,520,044	139,490	5.86%
AB	1,963,575	2,083,521	119,946	6.11%
MB	615,725	636,635	20,910	3.40%
NS	427,733	445,645	17,912	4.19%
SK	486,873	501,808	14,935	3.07%
NB	339,166	349,843	10,677	3.15%
NL	212,632	219,765	7,133	3.35%
PEI	72,648	75,697	3,049	4.20%

As I said at the outset, this shouldn’t be that surprising, given that we have the fourth largest population in general. Alberta is in first place, however, in terms of percentage change over the last year.

Here is what things look like going back to December 2020, two years prior and about 8 months into the pandemic.

	Dec 2020	Dec 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,178,195	6,901,379	723,184	11.71%
QC	3,611,556	4,037,200	425,644	11.79%
BC	2,226,551	2,520,044	293,493	13.18%
AB	1,842,130	2,083,521	241,391	13.10%
MB	569,440	636,635	67,195	11.80%
SK	459,492	501,808	42,316	9.21%
NS	409,039	445,645	36,606	8.95%
NB	323,513	349,843	26,330	8.14%
NL	207,170	219,765	12,595	6.08%
PEI	67,778	75,697	7,919	11.68%

Alberta, once again, had the fourth largest increase in payroll employment, but dropped to second highest when we look at percentage-based increase, behind only British Columbia.

However, things start to look less rosy the further we go back.

For example, check out what the numbers look like when compared to December 2019, 5 months after the UCP government introduced what they dubbed the “Job Creation Tax Cut”.

	Dec 2019	Dec 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,636,017	6,901,379	265,362	4.00%
QC	3,829,382	4,037,200	207,818	5.43%
BC	2,357,399	2,520,044	162,645	6.90%
AB	2,024,852	2,083,521	58,669	2.90%
NB	323,150	349,843	26,693	8.26%
MB	611,679	636,635	24,956	4.08%
NS	426,499	445,645	19,146	4.49%
SK	483,981	501,808	17,827	3.68%
PEI	70,297	75,697	5,400	7.68%
NL	215,749	219,765	4,016	1.86%

Alberta’s growth in payroll employees since December 2019 was the fourth best of all the provinces in Canada, in total numbers. However, that growth was drastically lower than the 3 larger provinces. For example, British Columbia, which was only one spot above Alberta, saw an increase in payroll employment that was nearly 3 times as large as Alberta’s, despite having a population that is only 14% larger.

On a percentage basis, Alberta actually saw the second worst growth of all provinces, coming in at less than three percent.

Ontario and Québec each saw an increase in over 200,000 payroll employees during the same period. BC was the only other province to pass the 100,000 mark. And New Brunswick grew their number of payroll employees by over 8%.

Finally, let’s compare last year’s numbers to December 2018, the last December during the NDP administration.

	Dec 2018	Dec 2022	Change	% change
ON	6,539,725	6,901,379	361,654	5.53%
QC	3,723,296	4,037,200	313,904	8.43%
BC	2,313,700	2,520,044	206,344	8.92%
AB	2,012,926	2,083,521	70,595	3.51%
NB	319,735	349,843	30,108	9.42%
NS	416,682	445,645	28,963	6.95%
MB	612,194	636,635	24,441	3.99%
SK	478,532	501,808	23,276	4.86%
PEI	67,598	75,697	8,099	11.98%
NL	215,513	219,765	4,252	1.97%

Once again, Alberta saw the fourth largest increase in absolute numbers, but, once again, it trails behind the three other large provinces. Ontario and Québec each passed the 300,000 mark, and BC was just over 200,000, almost 3 times the increase that Alberta saw, despite having only 14% more people living there.

By percentage, Alberta was still in second-to-last place, at just 3.51%.

Keep in mind that Alberta’s population increased by 7.79% during the same period, which means the growth in payroll jobs we did see wasn’t even enough to give jobs to the people who were moving to the province, let alone those who were already here and were still unemployed.

PEI saw the largest increase in percentage growth, at nearly 12%

On that note, PEI’s corporate tax rate is 16%. Despite having a corporate income tax rate that is twice as high as Alberta’s, PEI was able to grow their payroll employees by 3.5 times more than Alberta could.

Maybe how low a tax on corporate profits is actually has no bearing on job growth.