Statistics Canada recently released fourth quarter data on payroll employment for each of the provinces. The seasonally adjusted data was as of the fourth quarter of 2022, which includes October, November, and December.
This data is different from the labour force data I reported on for December, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.
In particular, it includes full-time employees, part-time employees, as well as permanent, casual, temporary, and seasonal employees. It also includes working owners, directors, partners, and other officers of incorporated businesses, as well as employees who work at home or on the road but report to the location.
However, what it doesn’t include are owners or partners of unincorporated businesses and professional practices, the self-employed, subcontractors, external consultants, unpaid family workers, persons working outside Canada, and military personnel, as well as employees on unpaid leave, such as those on extended sick leave who are receiving insurance benefits.
I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in Alberta.
| ON | 6,564,960 |
| QC | 3,822,005 |
| BC | 2,379,865 |
| AB | 1,994,490 |
| MB | 601,185 |
| SK | 479,160 |
| NS | 414,515 |
| NB | 321,630 |
| NL | 199,475 |
| PEI | 67,695 |
Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, there were 1,994,490 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 1,975,005. That’s a 19,485 increase, the fourth largest increase in the country.
| Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 6,511,115 | 6,564,960 | 53,845 | 0.83% |
| QC | 3,784,980 | 3,822,005 | 37,025 | 0.98% |
| BC | 2,357,455 | 2,379,865 | 22,410 | 0.95% |
| AB | 1,975,005 | 1,994,490 | 19,485 | 0.99% |
| SK | 474,960 | 479,160 | 4,200 | 0.88% |
| NB | 317,815 | 321,630 | 3,815 | 1.20% |
| NS | 412,495 | 414,515 | 2,020 | 0.49% |
| MB | 599,235 | 601,185 | 1,950 | 0.33% |
| NL | 199,915 | 199,475 | -440 | -0.22% |
| PEI | 68,305 | 67,695 | -610 | -0.89% |
When we look at the increase as a percentage of the third quarter job numbers, we see that Alberta actually had the second largest increase, surpassed by only New Brunswick.
Alberta also had the fourth largest increase when we compare to the fourth quarter of 2021, a year earlier and a more than a year and a half after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.
| Q4 2021 | Q4 2022 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 6,232,490 | 6,564,960 | 332,470 | 5.33% |
| QC | 3,684,865 | 3,822,005 | 137,140 | 3.72% |
| BC | 2,260,565 | 2,379,865 | 119,300 | 5.28% |
| AB | 1,901,260 | 1,994,490 | 93,230 | 4.90% |
| MB | 582,905 | 601,185 | 18,280 | 3.14% |
| NS | 399,285 | 414,515 | 15,230 | 3.81% |
| SK | 466,670 | 479,160 | 12,490 | 2.68% |
| NB | 310,245 | 321,630 | 11,385 | 3.67% |
| NL | 193,405 | 199,475 | 6,070 | 3.14% |
| PEI | 64,490 | 67,695 | 3,205 | 4.97% |
As I said at the outset, this shouldn’t be that surprising, given that we have the fourth largest population in general. Alberta drops down to fourth place, however, in terms of percentage change over that year.
Here is what things look like going back to the fourth quarter of 2020, two years prior and about 3 quarters into the pandemic.
| Q4 2020 | Q4 2022 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 5,863,005 | 6,564,960 | 701,955 | 11.97% |
| QC | 3,449,480 | 3,822,005 | 372,525 | 10.80% |
| BC | 2,106,985 | 2,379,865 | 272,880 | 12.95% |
| AB | 1,787,125 | 1,994,490 | 207,365 | 11.60% |
| MB | 554,350 | 601,185 | 46,835 | 8.45% |
| SK | 445,485 | 479,160 | 33,675 | 7.56% |
| NS | 381,915 | 414,515 | 32,600 | 8.54% |
| NB | 297,880 | 321,630 | 23,750 | 7.97% |
| NL | 185,095 | 199,475 | 14,380 | 7.77% |
| PEI | 60,070 | 67,695 | 7,625 | 12.69% |
Alberta, once again, had the fourth largest increase in payroll employment, as well as fourth highest when we look at percentage-based increase.
However, things start to look less rosy the further we go back.
For example, check out what the numbers look like when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, the first quarter since the UCP government introduced what they dubbed the “Job Creation Tax Cut”.
| Q4 2019 | Q4 2022 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 6,342,300 | 6,564,960 | 222,660 | 3.51% |
| QC | 3,633,265 | 3,822,005 | 188,740 | 5.19% |
| BC | 2,257,265 | 2,379,865 | 122,600 | 5.43% |
| AB | 1,976,110 | 1,994,490 | 18,380 | 0.93% |
| NB | 307,125 | 321,630 | 14,505 | 4.72% |
| SK | 465,940 | 479,160 | 13,220 | 2.84% |
| MB | 588,375 | 601,185 | 12,810 | 2.18% |
| NS | 401,845 | 414,515 | 12,670 | 3.15% |
| PEI | 64,765 | 67,695 | 2,930 | 4.52% |
| NL | 198,880 | 199,475 | 595 | 0.30% |
Alberta’s growth in payroll employees since December 2019 was the fourth best of all the provinces in Canada, in total numbers. However, that growth was drastically lower than the 3 larger provinces. For example, British Columbia, which was only one spot above Alberta, saw an increase in payroll employment that was more than 6 times as large as Alberta’s, despite having a population that is only 14% larger.
On a percentage basis, Alberta actually saw the second worst growth of all provinces, coming in at less than one percent.
Ontario saw an increase in over 200,000 payroll employees during the same period. Québec and BC was the only other provinces to pass the 100,000 mark.
Finally, let’s compare last year’s numbers to the fourth quarter 2018, the last fourth quarter during the NDP administration.
| Q4 2018 | Q4 2022 | Change | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ON | 6,239,305 | 6,564,960 | 325,655 | 5.22% |
| QC | 3,538,960 | 3,822,005 | 283,045 | 8.00% |
| BC | 2,209,475 | 2,379,865 | 170,390 | 7.71% |
| AB | 1,949,485 | 1,994,490 | 45,005 | 2.31% |
| NS | 390,565 | 414,515 | 23,950 | 6.13% |
| NB | 299,975 | 321,630 | 21,655 | 7.22% |
| SK | 459,910 | 479,160 | 19,250 | 4.19% |
| MB | 584,025 | 601,185 | 17,160 | 2.94% |
| PEI | 63,345 | 67,695 | 4,350 | 6.87% |
| NL | 196,245 | 199,475 | 3,230 | 1.65% |
Once again, Alberta saw the fourth largest increase in absolute numbers, but, once again, it trails behind the three other large provinces. Ontario passed the 300,000 mark, Québec was over 250,000, and BC was over 150,000, almost 4 times the increase that Alberta saw, despite having only 14% more people living there.
By percentage, Alberta was still in second-to-last place, at just 2.31%.
Keep in mind that Alberta’s population increased by 7.79% during the same period, which means the growth in payroll jobs we did see wasn’t even enough to give jobs to the people who were moving to the province, let alone those who were already here and were still unemployed.
Québec saw the largest increase in percentage growth, at 8%
On that note, Québec’s corporate tax rate is 11.5%. Despite having a corporate income tax rate that is 1.5 times as high as Alberta’s, Québec was able to grow their payroll employees by 3.5 times more than Alberta could.
Maybe how low a tax on corporate profits is actually has no bearing on job growth.
