AB has worst payroll employment growth in Canada

Yesterday, Statistics Canada released updated data on employment and average weekly earnings for each of the provinces. The new data was as of March 2022.

I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in Alberta.

This data is different from the labour force data I reported on last month for March, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.

ON	6,695,060
QC	3,953,991
BC	2,428,789
AB	1,996,173
MB	617,716
SK	487,949
NS	432,489
NB	339,552
NL	215,036
PEI	73,472

Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.

In March 2022, there were 1,996,173 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 1,985,515. That’s a 10,658 increase, the third largest increase in the province.

	Feb 2022	Mar 2022	Change	% change
QC	3,896,897	3,953,991	57,094	1.47%
PEI	72,984	73,472	488	0.67%
ON	6,657,880	6,695,060	37,180	0.56%
AB	1,985,515	1,996,173	10,658	0.54%
NL	214,061	215,036	975	0.46%
NS	430,606	432,489	1,883	0.44%
BC	2,420,547	2,428,789	8,242	0.34%
NB	338,419	339,552	1,133	0.33%
SK	487,408	487,949	541	0.11%
MB	618,146	617,716	-430	-0.07%

However, when we look at the increase as a percentage of February’s job numbers, we see that Alberta actually had the fourth largest increase.

Alberta also had the fourth largest increase in percentage when we compare to March 2021, a year earlier and a year after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Mar 2021	Mar 2022	Change	% change
QC	3,665,115	3,953,991	288,876	7.88%
ON	6,228,116	6,695,060	466,944	7.50%
BC	2,264,001	2,428,789	164,788	7.28%
AB	1,869,295	1,996,173	126,878	6.79%
PEI	69,107	73,472	4,365	6.32%
MB	588,817	617,716	28,899	4.91%
NL	205,053	215,036	9,983	4.87%
SK	465,824	487,949	22,125	4.75%
NB	326,330	339,552	13,222	4.05%
NS	418,301	432,489	14,188	3.39%

However, things start to look less rosy the further we go back.

For example, check out what job numbers look like when we compare March 2022 to March 2020, the first month of the pandemic.

	Mar 2020	Mar 2021	Change	% change
QC	3,554,947	3,953,991	399,044	11.23%
PEI	66,812	73,472	6,660	9.97%
NB	311,291	339,552	28,261	9.08%
BC	2,230,211	2,428,789	198,578	8.90%
ON	6,307,750	6,695,060	387,310	6.14%
NS	407,994	432,489	24,495	6.00%
MB	583,392	617,716	34,324	5.88%
SK	465,237	487,949	22,712	4.88%
AB	1,905,395	1,996,173	90,778	4.76%
NL	206,889	215,036	8,147	3.94%

Alberta has seen the third largest increase in total jobs over the last two years, but relative to the number of jobs they had in March 2022, Alberta has seen the second worst growth in the country.

And look how bad things are if we go 3 years out, to March 2019, which was just 2 months before the UCP were elected.

	Mar 2019	Mar 2022	Change	% change
PEI	68,519	73,472	4,953	7.23%
NB	322,329	339,552	17,223	5.34%
QC	3,772,462	3,953,991	181,529	4.81%
BC	2,329,997	2,428,789	98,792	4.24%
NS	420,749	432,489	11,740	2.79%
ON	6,594,480	6,695,060	100,580	1.53%
SK	482,708	487,949	5,241	1.09%
MB	613,740	617,716	3,976	0.65%
NL	216,948	215,036	-1,912	-0.88%
AB	2,023,214	1,996,173	-27,041	-1.34%

Alberta has seen the worst job creation record of all 10 Canadian provinces, with over 27,000 fewer payroll employees than we had 3 years ago.

No other province saw such a large drop, in total numbers or in percentages.

In fact, Québec saw an increase in almost 200,000 payroll employees during the same period, and Ontario passed the 100,000 mark, with BC just shy of 100,000.

Here’s how the jobs have changed over the last 3 years, by industry.

	Mar 2019	Mar 2022	Change	% change
Accommodation and food services	166,469	147,805	-18,664	-11.21%
Educational services	152,227	142,131	-10,096	-6.63%
Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services	96,946	89,459	-7,487	-7.72%
Real estate and rental and leasing	43,795	37,652	-6,143	-14.03%
Other services (except public administration)	76,092	71,277	-4,815	-6.33%
Manufacturing	124,850	120,211	-4,639	-3.72%
Arts, entertainment and recreation	39,742	35,234	-4,508	-11.34%
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction	99,943	96,129	-3,814	-3.82%
Information and cultural industries	27,371	25,380	-1,991	-7.27%
Public administration	109,875	107,976	-1,899	-1.73%
Forestry, logging and support	3,936	3,578	-358	-9.10%
Management of companies and enterprises	19,884	19,615	-269	-1.35%
Construction	175,608	175,495	-113	-0.06%
Trade	343,518	343,564	46	0.01%
Transportation and warehousing	103,948	105,903	1,955	1.88%
Utilities	13,859	16,131	2,272	16.39%
Finance and insurance	61,952	66,764	4,812	7.77%
Professional, scientific and technical services	117,147	124,707	7,560	6.45%
Health care and social assistance	214,821	227,018	12,197	5.68%

Only 5 industries have seen a net increase in payroll employees over the last 3 years. The other 13 all saw losses, the largest of which was in the hospitality sector, which lost nearly 19,000 payroll employees.

And that’s despite having one of the lowest job vacancy rates in the country.

The job vacancy rate is the number of job vacancies expressed as a percentage of labour demand.

BC	7.3
QC	6.7
PEI	5.6
ON	5.6
SK	5.4
NS	5.2
MB	5.0
NB	4.8
AB	4.7
NL	4.5

And, as you can see from the above table, Alberta had the second lowest job vacancy rate in Canada.

You’d think that a province with such a low vacancy rate wouldn’t have so many jobs still missing.

In fact, according to Statistics Canada, Alberta still has 95,440 payroll employee vacancies. Seems weird that we still have over 27,000 fewer people working than we did 3 years ago.