AB trails most of Canada in employee growth

Statistics Canada recently released data on payroll employment, and I was curious to see how Alberta fared with the rest of the country.

For the purposes of their data, Statistics Canada classifies someone as a payroll employee if they are paid “for services rendered or for absences, and for whom the employer must complete a Canada Revenue Agency T4 form”.

It includes full-time, part-time, casual, and temporary employees, as well as working owners, directors, partners, and other officers of incorporated businesses.

It doesn’t include owners or partners of unincorporated businesses and professional practices, the self-employed, unpaid family workers, persons working outside Canada, military personnel, or casual workers for whom a T4 form isn’t required.

The data is current as of August 2023. Here’s how it breaks down for each province.

ON	6,997,811
QC	4,035,396
BC	2,542,429
AB	2,117,108
MB	643,659
SK	504,722
NS	450,326
NB	352,793
NL	223,419
PEI	78,368

Alberta saw the fourth largest number of payroll employees this past August. I’m not surprised by that, given that it also has the fourth largest population in general.

But how have the provinces performed over time?

	Jul 2023	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,992,082	6,997,811	5,729	0.08%
NB	351,828	352,793	965	0.27%
PEI	78,354	78,368	14	0.02%
NL	223,537	223,419	-118	-0.05%
NS	451,316	450,326	-990	-0.22%
SK	506,675	504,722	-1,953	-0.39%
AB	2,120,317	2,117,108	-3,209	-0.15%
MB	646,917	643,659	-3,258	-0.50%
BC	2,556,174	2,542,429	-13,745	-0.54%
QC	4,064,484	4,035,396	-29,088	-0.72%

Well, compared to the previous month, Alberta didn’t fare that well, actually, seeing the fourth largest decrease in the total number of payroll employees in the country.

In fact, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island were the only provinces that saw an increase in payroll employees. Everyone else dropped.

As a percentage of July’s payroll employees, Alberta performed better. Their 0.15% decrease was only the second smallest decrease, behind only Newfoundland and Labrador.

Now, let’s take a look at how things changed over the last year.

	Aug 2022	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,832,286	6,997,811	165,525	2.42%
AB	2,045,796	2,117,108	71,312	3.49%
QC	3,965,106	4,035,396	70,290	1.77%
BC	2,483,173	2,542,429	59,256	2.39%
MB	630,124	643,659	13,535	2.15%
NS	437,201	450,326	13,125	3.00%
SK	494,120	504,722	10,602	2.15%
NB	344,315	352,793	8,478	2.46%
NL	218,866	223,419	4,553	2.08%
PEI	75,442	78,368	2,926	3.88%

Here, Alberta does much better, jumping to second place, behind only Ontario; although Québec was nipping at Alberta’s heels, being the only other province that passed the 70,000 mark during this 12-month period.

Ontario really shot ahead of everyone else, increasing their payroll employees by more than double the amount seen by each the next 2 provinces. In fact, Ontario saw more new payroll employees as the next two provinces—Alberta and Québec—combined.

On a percentage basis, however, Alberta was still in second place, increasing their payroll employees by 3.49%. However, this time, they were behind Prince Edward Island—not Ontario—which saw a 3.88% increase.

Here’s the last two years.

	Aug 2021	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,435,746	6,997,811	562,065	8.73%
BC	2,323,921	2,542,429	218,508	9.40%
QC	3,825,384	4,035,396	210,012	5.49%
AB	1,933,516	2,117,108	183,592	9.50%
MB	606,600	643,659	37,059	6.11%
NS	419,264	450,326	31,062	7.41%
SK	476,053	504,722	28,669	6.02%
NB	330,653	352,793	22,140	6.70%
NL	210,540	223,419	12,879	6.12%
PEI	68,809	78,368	9,559	13.89%

Alberta drops back down to fourth place in terms of absolute numbers, with nearly 184,000 more people working on payroll than there were in August 2021. The three larger provinces all had passed the 200,000 mark.

On a percentage basis, however, Alberta is back at second place, again behind PEI: 9.50% compared to 13.89%.

Things start to get a little less rosy for Alberta when we head back to August 2022, 5 months into the COVID-19 pandemic.

	Aug 2020	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	5,940,206	6,997,811	1,057,605	17.80%
QC	3,568,609	4,035,396	466,787	13.08%
BC	2,126,667	2,542,429	415,762	19.55%
AB	1,790,335	2,117,108	326,773	18.25%
MB	578,199	643,659	65,460	11.32%
SK	446,213	504,722	58,509	13.11%
NS	392,791	450,326	57,535	14.65%
NB	310,077	352,793	42,716	13.78%
NL	197,969	223,419	25,450	12.86%
PEI	63,666	78,368	14,702	23.09%

Alberta is still in fourth place for absolute numbers, behind BC, Québec, and Ontario, of course, but they drop from second to third place when we look at the percentage change.

Alberta saw a 18.25% increase in payroll employees since August 2020, yet BC’s was 19.55% and PEI’s was 23.09%.

Going back 4 years to August 2019, which was only 4 months into the United Conservative Party’s first term, shows things getting worse for Alberta.

	Aug 2019	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,643,585	6,997,811	354,226	5.33%
QC	3,830,653	4,035,396	204,743	5.34%
BC	2,357,725	2,542,429	184,704	7.83%
AB	2,029,390	2,117,108	87,718	4.32%
NS	423,681	450,326	26,645	6.29%
NB	327,379	352,793	25,414	7.76%
SK	483,566	504,722	21,156	4.37%
MB	623,947	643,659	19,712	3.16%
PEI	70,232	78,368	8,136	11.58%
NL	216,969	223,419	6,450	2.97%

Alberta is in fourth place still, but the 3 provinces ahead of them saw massive gains in payroll employees over the last 4 years. BC, which was in third place, saw nearly 100,000 more payroll employees than Alberta did. And Ontario, which was in the top spot, passed the 350,000 mark, roughly 4 times more new payroll employees than what Alberta saw.

As far as percentages go, despite Alberta seeing nearly 90,000 more payroll employees than in August 2019—more than the next 3 provinces combined—this was an increase of onl 4.32%, the third lowerst in the country.

Only Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador saw smaller percentage increases.

The largest percentage increase went to Prince Edward Island, once again, which saw 11.58% more payroll employees over the last 4 years.

Let’s go back a bit further, to August 2018, the last August under the NDP government.

	Aug 2018	Aug 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,508,873	6,997,811	488,938	7.51%
QC	3,708,259	4,035,396	327,137	8.82%
BC	2,298,669	2,542,429	243,760	10.60%
AB	2,012,616	2,117,108	104,492	5.19%
NS	415,212	450,326	35,114	8.46%
NB	320,396	352,793	32,397	10.11%
SK	477,861	504,722	26,861	5.62%
MB	620,016	643,659	23,643	3.81%
PEI	68,331	78,368	10,037	14.69%
NL	215,615	223,419	7,804	3.62%

Here we see that while the United Conservative Party has been in power, Alberta has seen an increase of over 100,000 payroll employees, the fourth largest increase in the country.

However, their increase was outshadowed by the three larger provinces. BC saw an increase that was more than double that of Alberta, Québec’s was more than triple, and Ontario’s was more than quadruple.

As a result, on a percentage basis, Alberta was still in third last place. Only Newfoundland and Labrador (3.62%) and Manitoba (3.81%) did worse.

PEI was once again in the lead, with a 14.69% increase in payroll employees. BC (10.60%) and New Brunswick (10.11%) joined PEI in being the only provinces that saw double digit percentage increases since the summer of 2018.

So, while the number of people working has indeed increased in Alberta under the UCP, it increased in every other provinces as well, and it increased at faster rates in 7 of them.

Oh, and since our relative increase has been so slow, it has allowed the other provinces to eat into our share of the national jobs. Take a look at this graph.

In August 2018, Alberta had 12.04% of the payroll employees in the country. As of this past August, that number was 11.75%. The number was pretty stagnant between August 2018 and April 2019, when the UCP won their first election.

But the following month, that percentage began to drop, and it continued to do so (other than a brief spike at the start of the pandemic) until September 2020, when it plateaued again briefly.

In the roughly 3 years since then, the percentage has been climbing, but there’s been another plateau at around the 11.75% mark that began this past April. Even so, it still has about 25 basis points before we can get back to 2018 level.

And at this rate, we might be waiting for another year. At least.