Alberta NDP beat out UCP in recent election poll

Nearly half of decided voters would vote for NDP right now, compared to only 2 in 5 for UCP. The first time since the election the NDP are ahead.

Between November 10 and 23, Environics Research polled 1,205 people in Alberta to see where their voting intentions were. The poll found that 38% of participants would choose the NDP if an election were held tomorrow, compared to only 32% for the UCP.

Those numbers jump to 47% and 40%, respectively, when polling only decided voters.

These results contrast with an Angus Reid poll in September, which saw both parties tied at 38% among decided voters. This is the first poll since the election showing the NDP ahead of the UCP.

The Alberta Party is still at only 9% among decided voters, where it was in the September poll.

The NDP leads in both Calgary and Edmonton, as they did in September. They have 46% in Calgary (up from 45% in September) and 59% in Edmonton (down from 63%).

However, the UCP are also up in these cities: from 36% to 39% in Calgary and 26% to 31% in Edmonton.

Unsurprisingly, the UCP leads in the rest of Alberta, with 48% support among decided voters, compared to 37% for the NDP. In September, Angus Reid had UCP support outside Calgary and Edmonton at only 38%, so that’s a significant jump. However, not quite as much of a jump as the NDP saw: they went from 19% in September to 37% in the new poll.

Between Rachel Notley of the NDP and Jason Kenney of the UCP, Notley has the higher approval rating,

Notley has a 50% approval rating, with 39% disapproving of her. Kenney, on the other hand, has only 35% approval and 55% disapproval. When restricted to just strongly approve and strongly disapprove, Notley has 19% and 22%, compared to Kenney’s 8% and 35%.

When it comes to trusting them to be honest and to tell voters the truth, Notley rated similarly to her approval ratings: 50% trust and 39% don’t trust. Kenney’s trust ratings were even worse: 33% trust and 57% don’t trust.

Only 10% of participants totally trust Notley, compared to only 3% for Kenney. Conversely, 19% of participants don’t trust Notley at all, compared to Kenney, who was at 33%.

The poll was commissioned by the Canadian Union of Public Employees.

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By Kim Siever

Kim Siever is an independent queer journalist based in Lethbridge, Alberta. He writes daily news articles, focusing on politics and labour.

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