Between November 10 and 23, Environics Research polled 1,205 people in Alberta to see where their voting intentions were. The poll found that 38% of participants would choose the NDP if an election were held tomorrow, compared to only 32% for the UCP.
Those numbers jump to 47% and 40%, respectively, when polling only decided voters.
These results contrast with an Angus Reid poll in September, which saw both parties tied at 38% among decided voters. This is the first poll since the election showing the NDP ahead of the UCP.
The Alberta Party is still at only 9% among decided voters, where it was in the September poll.
The NDP leads in both Calgary and Edmonton, as they did in September. They have 46% in Calgary (up from 45% in September) and 59% in Edmonton (down from 63%).
However, the UCP are also up in these cities: from 36% to 39% in Calgary and 26% to 31% in Edmonton.
Unsurprisingly, the UCP leads in the rest of Alberta, with 48% support among decided voters, compared to 37% for the NDP. In September, Angus Reid had UCP support outside Calgary and Edmonton at only 38%, so that’s a significant jump. However, not quite as much of a jump as the NDP saw: they went from 19% in September to 37% in the new poll.
Between Rachel Notley of the NDP and Jason Kenney of the UCP, Notley has the higher approval rating,
Notley has a 50% approval rating, with 39% disapproving of her. Kenney, on the other hand, has only 35% approval and 55% disapproval. When restricted to just strongly approve and strongly disapprove, Notley has 19% and 22%, compared to Kenney’s 8% and 35%.
When it comes to trusting them to be honest and to tell voters the truth, Notley rated similarly to her approval ratings: 50% trust and 39% don’t trust. Kenney’s trust ratings were even worse: 33% trust and 57% don’t trust.
Only 10% of participants totally trust Notley, compared to only 3% for Kenney. Conversely, 19% of participants don’t trust Notley at all, compared to Kenney, who was at 33%.
The poll was commissioned by the Canadian Union of Public Employees.