AB had 3rd worst employee growth since the NDP were in office

Statistics Canada recently released data on payroll employment for each of the provinces. The seasonally adjusted data was as of June 2023.

This data is different from the labour force data I reported on for June, in that this specifically reports on workers who are on payroll.

In particular, it includes full-time employees, part-time employees, as well as permanent, casual, temporary, and seasonal employees. It also includes working owners, directors, partners, and other officers of incorporated businesses, as well as employees who work at home or on the road but report to the location.

However, what it doesn’t include are owners or partners of unincorporated businesses and professional practices, the self-employed, subcontractors, external consultants, unpaid family workers, persons working outside Canada, and military personnel, as well as employees on unpaid leave, such as those on extended sick leave who are receiving insurance benefits.

I figured I’d take a look to see how the job situation looks in each province for June 2023.

ON	6,965,656
QC	4,071,099
BC	2,556,256
AB	2,120,944
MB	643,297
SK	508,919
NS	453,374
NB	352,475
NL	221,595
PEI	78,380

Unsurprisingly, Alberta had the fourth largest number of payroll employees in Canada. After all, they do have the fourth largest population in general.

In June 2023, there were 2,120,944 payroll employees working in Alberta. The month before, that number was 2,114,214. That’s a 6,730 increase, the second largest increase in the country.

	May 2023	Jun 2023	Change	% change
QC	4,054,554	4,071,099	16,545	0.41%
AB	2,114,214	2,120,944	6,730	0.32%
BC	2,550,196	2,556,256	6,060	0.24%
NL	215,634	221,595	5,961	2.76%
ON	6,959,763	6,965,656	5,893	0.08%
MB	640,783	643,297	2,514	0.39%
SK	507,279	508,919	1,640	0.32%
NS	452,040	453,374	1,334	0.30%
PEI	77,471	78,380	909	1.17%
NB	352,641	352,475	-166	-0.05%

Québec saw the largest increase in payroll employees (16,545). New Brunswick, which lost 166 payroll employees, was the only province to see a decrease.

When we look at the increase as a percentage of May’s job numbers, we see that Alberta drops from 2nd place to 6th place, increasing only 0.32%.

Alberta, again, had the second largest increase when we compare to June 2022, a year earlier and just over two years after the province first introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Jun 2022	Jun 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,792,335	6,965,656	173,321	2.55%
AB	2,040,111	2,120,944	80,833	3.96%
BC	2,477,387	2,556,256	78,869	3.18%
QC	4,002,259	4,071,099	68,840	1.72%
MB	625,761	643,297	17,536	2.80%
SK	496,060	508,919	12,859	2.59%
NS	442,791	453,374	10,583	2.39%
NB	343,602	352,475	8,873	2.58%
PEI	75,512	78,380	2,868	3.80%
NL	222,561	221,595	-966	-0.43%

Alberta jumps to first place, however, in terms of percentage change over that year.

Here is what things look like going back to June 2021, two years prior and a little over a year into the pandemic.

	Jun 2021	Jun 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,209,744	6,965,656	755,912	12.17%
QC	3,784,230	4,071,099	286,869	7.58%
BC	2,290,109	2,556,256	266,147	11.62%
AB	1,887,112	2,120,944	233,832	12.39%
MB	591,834	643,297	51,463	8.70%
NS	413,594	453,374	39,780	9.62%
SK	470,929	508,919	37,990	8.07%
NB	330,093	352,475	22,382	6.78%
NL	211,307	221,595	10,288	4.87%
PEI	68,603	78,380	9,777	14.25%

Alberta drops to having the fourth largest increase in payroll employment; however, we had the second largest percentage-based increase, slightly behind only Ontario.

However, things start to look less rosy the further we go back.

For example, check out what the numbers look like when compared to June 2020, 11 months since the UCP government introduced what they dubbed the “Job Creation Tax Cut” and 3 months after the government introduced public health protections related to the pandemic.

	Jun 2020	Jun 2023	Change	% change
ON	5,511,138	6,965,656	1,454,518	26.39%
QC	3,291,143	4,071,099	779,956	23.70%
BC	2,010,859	2,556,256	545,397	27.12%
AB	1,673,418	2,120,944	447,526	26.74%
MB	538,009	643,297	105,288	19.57%
SK	421,342	508,919	87,577	20.79%
NS	373,758	453,374	79,616	21.30%
NB	297,122	352,475	55,353	18.63%
NL	187,255	221,595	34,340	18.34%
PEI	61,358	78,380	17,022	27.74%

Alberta’s growth in payroll employees since June 2020 was still the fourth best of all the provinces in Canada, in total numbers. However, that growth was drastically lower than the 3 larger provinces.

For example, British Columbia, which was only one spot above Alberta, saw an increase in payroll employment that was more than 22% as large as Alberta’s, despite having a population that is only 14% larger.

And Ontario saw a million more payroll employees than Alberta did.

On a percentage basis, Alberta actually bumps up slightly from second place over the past two years to third place over the last three years, amongst all provinces, coming in at 26.74%.

Ontario saw an increase in nearly 1.5 million payroll employees during the same period. Québec and BC were the only other provinces to pass the 500,000 mark.

Next, let’s compare this year’s June numbers to June 2019, two months after the UCP won their first provincial election.

	Jun 2019	Jun 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,594,829	6,965,656	370,827	5.62%
QC	3,820,587	4,071,099	250,512	6.56%
BC	2,347,680	2,556,256	208,576	8.88%
AB	2,028,753	2,120,944	92,191	4.54%
NS	425,163	453,374	28,211	6.64%
NB	325,488	352,475	26,987	8.29%
SK	483,626	508,919	25,293	5.23%
MB	623,945	643,297	19,352	3.10%
PEI	69,179	78,380	9,201	13.30%
NL	215,522	221,595	6,073	2.82%

Once again, Alberta saw the fourth largest increase in absolute numbers, but, once again, it trails behind the three other large provinces. Ontario passed the 300,000 mark, and both Québec and BC passed 200,000. BC’s increase was more than twice as large as the increase that Alberta saw, despite having, as I said earlier, only 14% more people living there.

By percentage, Alberta was in third-to-last place, at just 4.54%.

Keep in mind that Alberta’s population increased by 7.82% during the same period—or rather between June 2019 and March 2023—which means the growth in payroll jobs of 4.5% we did see wasn’t even enough to give jobs to the people who were moving to the province, let alone those who were already here and were still unemployed.

PEI saw the largest increase in percentage growth, at 13.30%.

Finally, let’s compare the numbers to June 2018, the last June under the NDP administration.

	Jun 2018	Jun 2023	Change	% change
ON	6,480,683	6,965,656	484,973	7.48%
QC	3,714,496	4,071,099	356,603	9.60%
BC	2,295,175	2,556,256	261,081	11.38%
AB	2,025,399	2,120,944	95,545	4.72%
NS	416,609	453,374	36,765	8.82%
NB	317,640	352,475	34,835	10.97%
SK	480,417	508,919	28,502	5.93%
MB	620,030	643,297	23,267	3.75%
PEI	67,226	78,380	11,154	16.59%
NL	214,964	221,595	6,631	3.08%

As with the last three tables, Alberta is in fourth place in terms of absolutely numbers, but still behind the top 3. Of the four largest provinces, Alberta was the only one with an increase that was below 100,000.

On a percentage basis, Alberta was still in third-to-last place, increasing only 4.72%, ahead of just Manitoba (3.75%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (3.08%).

And as with the 2019 numbers, PEI saw the largest percentage increase among all the provinces.

On that note, PEI’s corporate tax rate is 16%. Despite having a corporate income tax rate that is twice as high as Alberta’s, PEI was able to grow their payroll employees by over 3.5 times more than Alberta could.

Maybe how low a tax on corporate profits is actually has no bearing on job growth.

Finally, here’s a look at the monthly growth in payroll employees for Alberta since June 2018.

While it might seem impressive on the surface that Alberta saw an increase of 233,832 payroll employees over the last 2 years, it looks like most of that was recovery from the pandemic.

In fact, as I pointed out earlier, over the last 3.5 years, from just as the pandemic was starting (March 2020), Alberta saw an increase of just 204,888 payroll employees. That means that of the 252,802 additional payroll employees we’ve seen since June 2021, 81.05% are likely exclusively recovery positions.

Not only that, but between May 2019, when the UCP took power, and February 2020, the month before the province introduced public health protections, Alberta had lost 13,444 payroll employees, so we were already on a decline before the pandemic hit.

And it wasn’t even until last April—over 3 years—that we finally passed the number of payroll employees we had in April 2019.