AB’s teachers per capita at lowest level since 2014

Earlier this week, the Government of Alberta updated the Current provincial population estimates page on their website after Statistics Canada released population data for the second quarter of 2024.

Between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024, Alberta’s population increased by 204,209 people.

That’s a growth rate of 4.36%, the highest second quarter year-over-year growth rate the province has seen since 1981. It was also the largest population growth of any province in Canada.

	Q2 2023	Q2 2024	Change	% change
AB	4,684,514	4,888,723	204,209	4.36%
ON	15,623,207	16,124,116	500,909	3.21%
BC	5,531,553	5,698,430	166,877	3.02%
PEI	173,713	178,550	4,837	2.78%
MB	1,454,743	1,494,301	39,558	2.72%
NB	832,190	854,355	22,165	2.66%
SK	1,209,307	1,239,865	30,558	2.53%
QC	8,848,020	9,056,044	208,024	2.35%
NS	1,056,486	1,076,374	19,888	1.88%
NL	538,907	545,247	6,340	1.18%

Lots of other media outlets are analyzing these numbers, so I’m not going to do that here. But it did prompt a population-based question in my mind.

How is Alberta doing on the number of K–12 teachers employed to respond to this population growth?

I took some time to comb through full-time equivalent tables in the Government of Alberta budget documents over the last decade, which contains all the public sector workers employed in Alberta.

Although, technically, it’s the number of full-time equivalent positions.

For example, if two part-time instructors work half time, they would be considered 0.5 FTE each and together would count as one FTE. So the number of public sectors workers could actually be larger, if we separated out all the part-time workers rather than combining them.

Anyhow, one line item in the full-time equivalents table is “certified staff” under the Education section. This is primarily teachers. It doesn’t include school support staff.

Here’s how the “certified staff” line item has looked over the last decade.

2024	38,988
2023	38,188
2022	37,038
2021	36,565
2020	37,226
2019	37,536
2018	37,197
2017	36,220
2016	35,958
2015	34,750
2014	34,375

Keep in mind that all but the first row are budgeted figures, as the provincial government doesn’t publish numbers on actual FTEs each year.

The first row is an estimated number, based on the projection the government was making on hires as of February 2024. This number could end up being higher or lower by the end of the budget year, depending on whether the government chooses to fund more or fewer teachers.

So, Alberta has gone from 34,375 certified staff in the first quarter of 2014 to 38,988 certified staff in the first quarter of 2024. That’s an increase of 4,613. And 4,613 more teachers in Alberta is a good thing, right?

Well, here’s the thing.

That increase of 4,613 new teachers ends up being a jump of 13.42%. Meanwhile, Alberta’s population between the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2024 increased by 764,379, or 18.98%.

This means, of course, that while Alberta has more teachers than it did a decade ago, that growth hasn’t kept up with the increase to population.

Let’s look at this another way: teachers per capita.

Alberta’s 2014–2015 fiscal year ended up with a budgeted teacher per capita rate of 8.54 per 1000 people, based on 34,375 FTE certified staff for a total population of 4,027,497.

A decade later, that has dropped by 40 basis points to 8.14 per 1000: 38,988 certified staff for 4,791,876 people.

But that’s not the only story.

The teacher per capita rate was actually on the rise leading up to the United Conservative Party gaining power in 2019. The teacher per capita rate increased from a low of 8.45 per 1000 in 2015 to 8.68 per 1000 in 2019.

This means that Alberta’s teacher per capita rate has increased even more under the UCP’s leadership, dropping 54 basis points, from 8.68 per 1000 to 8.14 per 1000.

Here’s a breakdown of the above graph by political party in power, with light blue being the PCs, orange being the NDP, and the dark blue being the UCP.

Under the NDP, the teacher per capita rate was on the rise, but that trend reversed under the UCP.

Even when there were consecutive increases in 2022 and 2023, the rate was still far lower than at any point under the PCs and NDP.

In fact, the teacher per capita rate in 2024 is the lowest it’s been since at least 2014.

No wonder people are complaining about increasing classes sizes in Alberta.